China: Notes from Washington/Trade War

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 15 Oct 2019 by Andrew Collier

I just returned from a three-day trip to Washington DC meeting local corporates, the Mansfield Foundation, CSIS, the State Department, and officials at the White House. Overall, the tone in Washington is decidedly negative. There is a growing consensus that China is rising, the trade war is hurting, and authoritarianism is increasing – and it is the role of the United States to counter these dark trends. It has truly boiled down to a Manichean “clash of civilizations.” I do not agree with many of the viewpoints and believe they misrepresent the mindset of the Chinese leadership.

Meanwhile, while I was in Washington, “stage one” of the trade agreement was announced. It addresses two of four initial White House demands: purchase of US goods and market entry for U.S. financials. Subsidies and IP protection are to be arranged in stage two. This is a clear failure of the trade talks and an obvious payoff for President Trump’s political base.

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