China reported 5 percent GDP growth in 2024

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 21 Jan 2025 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this report:

- The year 2024 ended pretty much as we had all more or less expected: GDP grew by 5 percent on the dot (almost literally on the dot), driven by surging exports and expanding production, and dragged down by very weak domestic demand. This means that growth in the fourth quarter was especially strong to compensate for weak second and third quarters. Nominal GDP growth was 4.2 percent.

- China recorded the biggest trade surplus in history, nearly USD 1 trillion, an amount equal to an astonishing 1.1% of the GDP of the rest of the world. Given its huge dependence on its trade surplus to resolve weak domestic demand, among the biggest questions facing the Chinese economy, and especially the evolution of its debt ratio, is whether or not the trade environment will be nearly as favorable in 2025 as it was in 2024.

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