China's weak hand

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 19 Dec 2024 by Andrew Collier

China’s economy is likely performing worse than the official data suggests, including in both the private and state sector. For structural reasons, any stimulus is likely to be ineffective. Given the weak economic data points, along with the difficult trade environment among China’s main customers, Europe and the U.S., China’s options are limited. Rising unrest will increase the pressure on the Party to change tactics. The one easy policy victory for the Party would be a quick trade deal with President Trump that softens harsh sanctions. However, for that, the Party would have to temper its geopolitical ambitions.

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