China’s work report: Why isn’t China growing faster?

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 09 Mar 2018 by Andrew Collier

Last week, China outlined its goals for 2018 in its annual work report issued by Premier Li Keqiang. It’s very ambitious – and there’s a lot that is quite misleading….

The real issue is the promise that fiscal policy “will continue to be proactive.” What does this mean in light of all the talk about deleveraging? Let’s look at the data.

China’s Total Social Financing is the widely used benchmark for credit. This includes bank loans, along with a limited portion of non-bank (shadow) financing, including Trusts. This moderated by the end of 2017 to 214% of GDP from 216.9% in the first half.

Now read on...

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