Politics: Coalition could be a game changer in 2021

MEXICO - Report 14 Dec 2020 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

The December 5 announcement by the PAN, PRI and PRD that they hope to jointly field candidates in next year’s elections could be a game changer, but the burgeoning lash-up still faces many hurdles, starting with the pushback each of the organizations is likely to get from many of their own members and politicians. While all three parties collaborated on the Pact for Mexico structural reform agenda during the first years of the Peña Nieto administration, historically they have been the bitterest of enemies.

The latest GEA-ISA national survey of registered voters suggests that supporters of each of these parties are evenly split over whether the parties should run joint candidacies or go it alone next year. All these parties are looking to minimize the risk of losing some of their own voters by carefully choosing the congressional and local races in which to join forces around candidates best positioned to defeat politicians supporting López Obrador’s government.

The coalition project initially is focusing only on the 114 districts in which the Morena-PT-PES candidate’s 2018 margin of victory was less than 20%. However, the parties are also considering joint participation in some districts in which pro-AMLO candidates won with a bigger lead but in which PAN, PRI or PRD candidates had previously been favored.

Another major hurdle is the severe popularity deficit these parties are facing. While AMLO’s Morena party enjoys a 4-point-plus reading in the balance of negative and positive opinions, the PRI and PAN show net negatives of roughly -35 points, with almost 60% of voters expressing negative impressions. But the scenario changes significantly when voters are queried about an opposition alliance: the Morena alliance’s lead evaporates almost entirely, leaving the two blocs in a technical dead heat (24% to 20%). And that is before we factor in the possibility of Sí por México’s throwing its support behind opposition candidacies.

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