Cock Not Bull

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 17 Feb 2017 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

​Against a backdrop of policy uncertainties globally and locally, we are expecting GDP to grow 6.5% this year of the rooster, sliding to 6.3% next year; not quite the bullish picture that government envisions, i.e., of growth accelerating to 7-8% by 2018. Our outlook, moreover, entails a rooster’s keen watchfulness of the surroundings, of how the many global (“Trumpian uncertainty”, Brexit, Fed rate hike, China growth) and local (“Duterte uncertainty”, policy compromises, institutional constraints to ramping up public infrastructure) risks are likely to unfold. An important challenge for government is the speedy passage of the proposed tax reform package, with expected revenues intact, to bolster market confidence in the administration’s economic program​.

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