Concerns for 2016

COLOMBIA - Report 22 Jun 2015 by Veronica Navas and Mauricio Santa Maria
Executive Summary Q1 growth surpassed market expectations, but was in line with ours: the 2.8% rate DANE presented was well above the market’s 2.2%-2.4% prediction, but close to our 2.9% number. It’s in any case a good result, given trade shocks and the impacts of the international situation. Still, annualized growth has fallen to 3.4%. Financial services, commerce, construction and social services performed best. Lower fiscal revenues due to the fall in oil prices leave Colombia heavily dependent on the government’s program for a large fiscal stimulus, as tradable sectors, most crucially m...

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