Confused Reactions to a Worsening Scenario

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Dec 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The GDP result for the third quarter put paid to optimism regarding Brazilian growth. Not only have the perspectives worsened for 2013; the outlook is now more likely for mediocre growth in 2014. If we take stock prices as a leading indicator of growth, they point to acceleration in the United States and deceleration in Brazil. But the GDP result for the third quarter also showed continued growth of absorption in relation to GDP, which is consistent with the rising current account deficit, which is no longer being counteracted by gains in the terms of trade or acceleration...

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