Constitutional illiterates
An ad hoc commission formed and led mainly by legislators from the UNES and the Social Christian Party investigated a case of corruption in the electricity sector. Although the case has roots in the government of Rafael Correa, this commission decided to focus on the current presidential period, involving President Lasso directly.
The commission's report recommends the impeachment of President Lasso and was approved last week by over 100 legislators, but it is the Constitutional Court that has the last word. It will not be a fast-track process, but it is one of the many attempts to put Lasso out of office that the two above-mentioned political groups have carried out in the past year. They will most probably continue trying to do so until the end of the presidential period.
The irony of this case is that many legislators who approved the report are not in favor of impeachment. The justification for such a contradictory position is that those legislators wanted to send a message to President Lasso, but they do not want to destabilize democracy.
The official bloc of Izquierda Democratica issued a statement against the impeachment, and Pachakutik declared it will wait for the decision of the Constitutional Court. Therefore, votes in favor of the impeachment would come from UNES, the Social Christians, and dissidents from Izquierda Democratica and Pachakutik, but they risk not gathering the necessary two-thirds majority. It is also probable that the Constitutional Court will dismiss the report for its many inconsistencies and lack of proof, which former President of the Court Hernan Salgado summarized brilliantly when he called the authors of the report “constitutional illiterates”. In any event, if the probability of impeachment increases, President Lasso could exercise his right to call upon "cross death" and die with it, taking down his enemies with him.
The above-mentioned situation, as well as the disastrous electoral results of last February and the unprecedented violence and insecurity in Ecuador, has forced President Lasso to announce an increase in public investment and current expenditure due to the planned incorporation of 10,000 new policemen this year. The announcement is, in our view, a healthy change of gears after four years of strong fiscal adjustment, which was also necessary. However, the government will need higher-than-previously-estimated financing to cover a most probable higher deficit for 2023.
Given the tight fiscal liquidity of the two first months of the year that has already resulted in arrears of $891 million, securing access to financing should be a priority for Minister of Finance Pablo Arosemena—a difficult task given the domestic political risk and the global monetary environment.
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