Consumer (and construction) drives Q1 growth

TURKEY - Report 11 Jun 2018 by Murat Ucer

The Turkish economy grew at a somewhat higher than expected 7.4% rate, y/y, in Q1 (2%, q/q), which was primarily driven by a surge in private consumption. The latter expanded at a whopping 11% rate (4.2%, q/q), driven by non-durable consumption and services (Table 1; Graphs 1-3).

More broadly, growth continued to have an unbalanced nature, with domestic demand contributing some 10 percentage points (pps) to, and foreign demand (or net exports) shaving off some 3.6 pps from overall growth in Q1 (Graph 4). Stocks, which include rounding and statistical errors, made another one pp contribution, which was, as expected, in positive territory, albeit markedly lower than in the previous quarter (see Graph 1).

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