Consumer lending grew strongly in August but may decelerate or even stagnate in 4Q22

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 03 Oct 2022 by Alexander Kudrin
The CBR reported that consumer lending was on the rise as total credit granted by banks to households grew in August by 1.1% m-o-m and reached R27.4 trln. It was the second consecutive month that consumer credit increased (it grew by the same 1.1% m-o-m in July). In the two preceding months, it remained relatively flat, having decreased in April. A recovery in consumer lending supported domestic demand and contributed to some sort of stabilization of the economy seen in July and August. Some recent developments, such as partial mobilization, contributed to an increase in uncertainty about the country’s future and has encouraged some people to flee the country. These developments may suppress the consumer market as longer-term planning has become more complicated. Hence despite lower interest rates, consumer lending growth may decelerate in the next few months with obvious short-term implications for the economy. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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