Consumer prices continue to fall in August

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 18 Aug 2022 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on August 15, consumer prices fell by 0.13% w-o-w bringing the MTD deflation to 0.23%. Inflation YTD fell to 10.72% Prices continue to fall across a wide range of products, albeit some selected protein-containing foodstuffs became more expensive, such as pork, fresh milk, and a few others. Fruit and vegetable prices continue to fall. One cannot rule out that in August as a whole, deflation may reach 0.4%. If so, the y-o-y inflation will fall to 14.4%. Increased budgetary spending in July has not yet broken the deflationary trend. As the current inflation (say, annualized 6M moving average) is falling fast, it may prompt the CBR to cut the key rate by 100 bps in mid-September. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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