Consumption leads growth yet another quarter

TURKEY - Report 28 Feb 2023 by Murat Ucer

GDP rose by 3.5%, y/y, in 2022Q4, higher than the consensus forecast of under 3% expansion (but broadly in line with ours), as sequential growth picked up to just under 1%, from an almost flat reading in the previous quarter (Graph 1).

For the year as a whole, GDP grew by a faster than expected 5.6% in 2022, atop some 11.4% growth in 2021, which brought the average growth rate over the past 5 years to a respectable 4.5% per annum (Graph 2). GDP now stands at almost 20% above its pre-pandemic level (Graph 3), while the output gap, by our calculations (using the standard HP-filter), remains modestly positive through the final quarter (Graph 4).

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