Economics: Continuing strength in hiring and wages may encounter obstacles later this year

MEXICO - Report 13 Jun 2023 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

Various labor indicators as of the first quarter, as well as other measures through April, indicate that job growth remains high, a result consistent with the extent of the economic growth registered in the first quarter of 2023. Total employment expanded 4.3% in the first quarter of 2023 based on growth in both formal (4.7%) and informal (4.0%) jobs, with the latter category accounting for 55% of the employed population.

Employed population growth has been uneven across sectors. For example, manufacturing jobs increased significantly throughout 2022 and the first two months of 2023, but in March the pace of hiring began to slow. Furthermore, construction employment has failed to recover from the downturn dating back to 2018.

Total earned income as measured by Inegi’s household income surveys (ENOE), grew a real 1.8% in the first quarter after remaining in negative territory throughout 2022. The total wage bill increased 3.3% in the same period. However, we anticipate a broader slowing trend in hiring and wages during the second half of 2023.
In this week’s report, we analyze the behavior of recent labor indicators as well as the perspectives for the current year.

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