Continuity versus Change

ARGENTINA - Forecast 21 May 2015 by Domingo Cavallo
Executive Summary Recent opinion polls do not dismiss the possibility that Daniel Scioli could be elected President in the first round of the October election. Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa, and some other less relevant candidates, are still competing for the non-Kirchnerist vote, which according to the same opinion polls, represents around 60% of the population. If, in the first round, neither of the two reaches 30% of the vote, Scioli could win the presidency with only 40% of the vote. More likely, there will be a second electoral round between Scioli and Macri. But in contrast with the...

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