Core Inflation Just Short of Double-Digit

TURKEY - Report 03 Feb 2016 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in January, broadly in line with expectations, which raised the 12-month rate further to 9.6%, from 8.8% in December, with the increase mainly stemming from administrative price hikes and food prices . More importantly, the 12-month core inflation (I-index) continued to stay elevated through January, rising slightly further to 9.6% -- to about the same level with CPI inflation -- up from 9.5% in December. Unsurprisingly, core is closely mimicking lira’s behavior, arguably even somewhat closer than in the previous cycles, which is suggestive of a worsening in the pricing behavior. Although it has been easing in recent months, core’s monthly pace of inflation remains high at around 0.7%, or at an annualized rate of 8.5%-9%.

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