​Corona is not our only problem

TURKEY - In Brief 08 Apr 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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Turkey’s corona outbreak has now spread throughout the country, as the map published by the Ministry of Health illustrates (See below). In addition 135 townships and villages are completely quarantined, as I write these lines. When we issue our Monthly---the Gods we pray to permitting—this weekend, we shall discuss the progress and potential peak of the epidemic thoroughly. In this mid-week update, I want to touch upon two other issues, which could have a significant effect on market sentiment and economy in the coming days. First, according to an unconfirmed Reuters report, first corona cases have been diagnosed in the Syrian Province of Idlib, which poses several new threats to Turkey. Secondly, suddenly Turkish press remembered April is the month when President Erdogan promised to activate the contentious S-400 Russian anti-missile batteries. Will he? As of 7 April Turkey has 34,109 corona patients, with 725 deaths. The map below illustrates that the virus is now spread throughout Anatolia, with 135 townships and villages under complete curfew. In another scary announcement, 4 apartment blocks in separate streets of the borough of Bagcilar, Istanbul, have now been quarantined. There isn’ta consensus, but several medical authorities expressed the opinion that if the public abide by social distancing and self-isolation measures, the outbreak will plateau sometime between May and June. I pray this will be the case, but from a statistical viewpoint, I don’t see the evidence. As a tail-risk scenario, readers ought to be prepared for the outbreak outlasting summer months. A new development compounding my concerns is the proliferation of the cases in Syria, which is doing ...