Correa's chances for 2021 are still alive
The political party that supports Correa, Fuerza Compromiso Social, was able to maintain its electoral participation for 2021. Thus, even though Correa cannot run for president in the upcoming election, he could register his name for vice president.
However, his chances are at odds with the accusations of bribery and illicit association against him in the "Green Rice" case. Correa’s defense tried to delay the trial by recusing two of the three judges conducting the trial, but the strategy was unsuccessful. The trial continues, but a final sentence must be ready before October this year, when presidential candidates must register for the coming elections.
El Mercurio, a small newspaper from Cuenca, the fourth largest city in Ecuador and traditionally leftist, conducted a poll of 3,831 people, of whom 49.6% answered they would vote for Rafael Correa should elections be held right now. Another 32% would vote for Leonidas Iza, an indigenous leader from the October riots, and only 11.5% and 4.5%, respectively, selected Jaime Nebot from the Social Christian Party and Guillermo Lasso from CREO.
Even though the poll might not represent a national trend, it still shows that Correa has strong support among the leftist groups, while the right appears fragmented and with no consensus for a joint candidate in the coming elections. Current Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner might be the answer to represent the right, but he would have to overcome the evident loss of popularity of President Moreno – which is in part behind the answers given to El Mercurio.
Ecuador has no cases of coronavirus yet, but the possible economic impact of the disease on its external sector should be closely monitored because China is Ecuador's second largest buyer of non-oil products. China also captures 55% of Ecuador's shrimp exports, which came to a halt during the extended New Year’s holiday because of the epidemic. Shrimp exports were the main engine of growth for non-oil sector exports in 2019 as they represent 28.5% of exports and grew 22% y/y, outpacing bananas, which grew only 2.5% y/y and represented 24% of non-oil traditional exports.
On the bright side, President Moreno's visit with President Trump at the beginning of February promises not only to tighten diplomatic and defense links after 12 years of difficult interaction, but also to open doors for improving bilateral trade terms for Ecuador in the near future.
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