Cost of Rebalancing Becomes Apparent

TURKEY - Report 10 Sep 2014 by Murat Ucer
Turkish economy expanded by a weaker than expected 2.1% in Q2 (y/y), and shrank by 0.5% over Q1 (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Details of the data point to broad-based domestic demand weakness, somewhat deeper than we expected, with foreign demand (net exports) saving the day, and contributing 2.9 pps to overall growth. In contrast, domestic demand and stocks each shaved off 0.4 pps (Graphs 3-4). Continued weakness in private investment (Graph 5), though expected, is disturbing, which is likely attributable to a more uncertain investment environment and weaker lira (or the damage that this inflicts...

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