Cost Rica: Staring Down Tough Times
The Costa Rican economy will keep adjusting over the next 18 months. The strategy of low interest rates and relative currency stability followed in 2015-2016 started to break down in H1 2017, as shown by the events in Q2, when the Central Bank raised its monetary policy rate five times, from 1.75% to 4.5%, and intervened in the FX market to cut currency volatility. The fiscal situation has grown tighter. The H1 2017 central government financial deficit was equivalent to 2.4% of forecast GDP, up from 2.2% a year earlier, and deficit financing depended almost entirely on the domestic market.
Our outlook for the next 18 months calls for a continuation of current trends: Economic activity is expected to slow, both in 2017 and 2018. Inflation will rise, though should stay within the Central Bank’s target range. The need for external savings will continue to be in the 3%-4% range, and be covered by FDI inflows. Interest rates and the exchange rate will increase, to maintain relative balance in the FX and financial markets. The fiscal imbalance, absent major fiscal reform, will keep deteriorating, shrinking credit availability to the private sector.
We foresee economic deterioration, but not major financial crisis. Yet Costa Rica is more vulnerable to external changes, and to negative shifts in expectations.
In El Salvador, the main macroeconomic indicators are stable. Economic activity is growing at 2% y/y, led by a robust rise in family remittances from abroad. The fiscal deficit increased in Q2, after falling since mid-2016. That trend will probably persist for the rest of 2017, as financing restrictions for the government have been softened, via greater access to pension trust funds. In fact, Congress approved an increase in limits to government financing of the pension trust, from 45% to 50% of its total assets. The government presented to Congress a new proposal to reform the pension system, though it retained the idea of weakening the private pension system to finance the PAYG system, already rejected by Congress.
In Guatemala, headline inflation reached 4.36% y/y in June, up from 3.93% y/y in May. Monthly inflation in June, at 0.86%, was the second highest of the last five years, calling into question its ability to stay within the Central Bank’s annual inflation target range of 3%-5%. On the other hand, core inflation in June was 3.14% y/y, higher than May’s 2.82% y/y, but below the 3.42% of June 2016. We don’t consider June’s monthly inflation a red light for Guatemala’s monetary policy, though, and so don’t expect near-term tightening.
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