Covid-19 weekly update - week ending October 11

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 13 Oct 2020 by Andrew Collier

October 1 through 8 was China’s Golden Week, when families gather to celebrate the holidays and presumably spend money. Despite the holiday period, though, consumer spending was relatively flat. Bloomberg did point out some positive trends, including higher major retail and catering enterprise sales and hotel bookings online. However, the weekly tracking shows the situation is not quite as positive as the picture painted by those trends.

Generally weakening growth in key consumer metrics, including auto sales, congestion, and mixed film attendance, suggest that the demand side is still a problem for China. Much of the recovery is being driven by fixed asset investment, which is underscored by property sales. A healthy market for rebar, glass for buildings, and cement prices, all suggest China is witnessing a “dual economy” - a strong state sector but a weak consumer sector.

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