CPI-inflation up in October, largely in line with expectation

HUNGARY - In Brief 10 Nov 2026 by Istvan Racz

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The headline rate was 0.4% mom, 2% yoy, the latter up from 1.6% yoy in September. Core inflation rose to 2.1% yoy, non-fuel inflation ascended to 1.6% yoy, both up two decimal points from their readings in the previous month. Fuel prices rose by 3% mom, 11.3% yoy, up 9% over the past two months, which added 0.5%-point to the yoy headline rate. Food prices were still pulling the yoy rate down (-1.1% yoy), eased by imports, whereas service prices rose by an average 5.2% yoy, acting as the other main driver of inflation, not least because of upward wage pressures, we think.There is hardly any surprise in these numbers. Analysts expected 1.9% yoy in Portfolio.hu's poll, their range of expectation being a narrow 1.9-2% yoy this time. Inflation is set to be rising further moderately in the forthcoming few months; we see the headline rate somewhere between 2-2.5% yoy (more accurately at 2.2% yoy) at end-2026. This expectation assumes that the administrative caps on retail margins will not be lifted before January 2027. Here, one piece of good news is that fuel prices were moving slightly downwards in the first ten days of November, decreasing by 0.6% from the October average, according to Holtankoljak.hu.