CPI-inflation will most likely rise moderately further in July

HUNGARY - In Brief 30 Jul 2018 by Istvan Racz
The wholesale prices of fuel rose by 0.5% mom in July, following much faster increases - 10.1% in total - over the previous three months. Assuming the same monthly increase by the consumer prices of fuel and the same 0.1% mom increase in non-fuel prices as the one recorded in the same month of last year, both appearing as the most likely outcomes, the yoy headline rate of CPI-inflation would be 3.3% in July, another upward movement from 3.1% in June.The resulting July inflation rate would then be the same as the MNB's standing forecast for Q3 (average), which is also our current expectation. The next really interesting data point will be September, where the issue to watch will be the prices of tobacco, milk and dairy products, and bread. In all three categories, significant price increases might potentially occur in September, with a total impact on the CPI of 0.2-0.6 percentage points within a single month.

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