Credit Expansion, Interest Rates and the RMB: China’s Policy Choices

CHINA FINANCIAL - Presentation 04 May 2017 by Michael Pettis

Although first quarter data was seen by many as confirming the new optimism, it does no such thing. The increase in Total Social Funding (a wide and more accurate measure of credit used by the PBOC) was higher than expected. The way in which China’s debt burden is resolved is key to its adjustment, and debt dynamics set most of the relevant parameters, including how much time Beijing has to implement the most important reforms.

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