Current account historically strong in 9M22

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 09 Dec 2022 by Alexander Kudrin
The Central Bank reported the current account continued to grow in 3Q22, albeit this surplus in 3Q22 was not as wide as in 2Q22 and 1Q22 – just $51.2bn versus ($76.7bn and $69.8bn accordingly). In 9M22, the current account surplus reached $225.7bn and is likely to widen to $270bn and possibly even more in 2022, as a whole. Balance on goods and services account widened to $269.8bn, meaning that the primary and secondary income balance was moderately negative (just over $44bn), and it was more negative than in 9M21 (nearly $37bn). Note that in 9M22, the current account surplus exceeded that of 9M21 by more than a factor of two. These numbers confirm one more time that Russia doesn’t need to export as much as it used to do in the past. Indeed, as restrictions on the import side from the West can only increase, there are higher incentives for Russia to reduce its energy exports given that not all goods that Russia used to buy from the West it can buy in Asia and the rest of the world. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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