Politics: Current electoral trends and the presidential succession

MEXICO - Report 27 Mar 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

With election campaigning officially set to begin in the State of Mexico and Coahuila gubernatorial races in the first few days of April, observers are closely watching the trends and outcome to consider their possible impact on the 2024 races, when the presidency, state, municipal and local governments, and Congress are all up for grabs. In this year’s races the main question is whether opposition coalition Va por México (literally "Go for Mexico") will be competitive against Morena.

In the State of Mexico, Morena gubernatorial candidate Delfina Gomez is the clear frontrunner, although the PRI’s Alejandra del Moral has recently narrowed the gap. Of major importance is the decision of Citizens’ Movement (MC) candidate Juan Zepeda to withdraw from the race, both because of the extent to which it clears the way for his supporters to vote instead for Del Moral, as well as due to the role the MC could potentially play in 2024. Had Zepeda stayed in the race and won a significant share of the vote, it would better have reinforced the MC national leadership’s claim to be the most viable opposition alternative to Morena. What role the MC may play in 2024 is now an open question. In Coahuila the fracturing of Morena supporters behind rival candidates ensures that the incumbent PRI will retain the governor’s mansion.

In the lead-up to 2024, national attention is focused on who Morena’s presidential candidate will be. The front-runner is currently Claudia Sheinbaum, and AMLO’s speech at a mass rally on March 18, which observers viewed as indicating a hardening and radicalization of his political stance, could be interpreted as favoring the current Mexico City head of government. The other strong contender is Minister of Foreign Relations Marcelo Ebrard, whose approach is quite the opposite, mainly appealing to the center of the political spectrum and the country’s middle class. The final decision will supposedly be decided through opinion polls, a mechanism fraught with risk that could lead to splits in Morena.

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