Cyclical Gains, Structural Pains

TURKEY - Report 10 Jun 2014 by Murat Ucer
Today’s Q1 growth data surprised slightly on the upside, coming in at 4.3%, y/y versus expectations of around 4%, us included. The quarterly growth rate (seasonally- and working day-adjusted) was puzzlingly strong, at 1.7% (corresponding to an annualized rate of over 7%), but we take these quarterly figures with caution, given their relative bumpiness -- taking averages instead, the economy appears to be expanding at an annualized 4% pace, just as the year-on-year figures suggest (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Growth in Q1 was driven almost equally by domestic and foreign demand contributions, whic...

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