Cyclical respites, secular concerns

TURKEY - Report 01 Oct 2023 by Murat Ucer

In this very brief econ-only Weekly, we take a quick look at last week’s data releases and review the latest deposit and reserve developments. The bottom line is that there is little sign of rebalancing in the economy according to data through August, as we see it, while reserves are being helped out by seasonal factors and higher rates, it appears.

On other matters, the Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek gave an interview to the FT, on which we say a few things inside, while S&P, entirely as expected, raised the outlook to stable from negative, yet keeping the sovereign’s rating at 5 notches below IG (link here). The IMF must have also concluded its brief staff visit to Turkey last Friday, the key objective of which, to recall, was probably to introduce the new IMF team to the authorities ahead of the upcoming Article IV mission -- at a date which has yet to be announced -- and re-initiate a policy dialogue of sorts.

Now read on...

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