Damned if you do, damned if you don’t

TURKEY - Report 18 Sep 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

President Erdogan came back from his meeting with Putin on the sides of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit with some gifts, though these may have fallen short of his expectations. Nonetheless, it is clear that Putin is ready to bankroll his pal Erdogan’s election campaign. The questions are how, by how much and at what price.

In three interlinked essays, the politics section provides provisional answers to these questions. The main conclusions are: Putin doesn’t have the kind of money necessary to bail out Erdogan; one of the conditions for his generosity may be to get help with sanctions-bending, and his gifts don’t alter our main scenario for elections.

Now read on...

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