Dangerous liaisons

TURKEY - Report 26 Aug 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

As we approach the end of the summer, the Nation Alliance under the de facto leadership of CHP leader Kilicdaroglu has been leading in the polls, as well as in terms of controlling the narrative.

The opposition strategy to win elections is firmly focused on forcing President Erdogan to commit more policy errors in economics, as well as forcing him to spend his dry powder prematurely. Erdogan doesn’t seem to have a strategy, but a cornucopia of contradictory ideas about improving economic performance. His primary objective is to find funding from abroad to stabilize the currency, and if possible, to bankroll an election campaign. This quest appears to have led him to cut a dangerous deal with Putin, a pre-condition of which seems to be making peace with Assad in Syria.

We argue that relying on foreign funding to win elections is a fool’s errand, which may trigger sanctions from the West and anger from the voters exhausted from carrying the burden of 4 million Syrian refugees. In conclusion, our politics author resolutely sticks to his hypothesis of a devastating defeat for Erdogan in May or June 2023 elections, with the six-party Nation Alliance climbing to a majority in the Grand Assembly.

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