Dangerous Monetary Arithmetic

ARGENTINA - Report 28 Mar 2014 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano and Domingo Cavallo
Executive Summary In the midst of yesterday’s downward revision of the preliminary 2013 GDP growth figure from 4.9% to 3.0%, we review some of the latest changes in macroeconomic policy. Over the past few years, in particular since Cristina Fernández de Kirchner took office, it has proven helpful to simplify the government’s economic thinking into three “ideological axioms”: 1) The market is not an efficient mechanism to allocate resources; 2) Consumption is the key engine of GDP growth; and 3) Capital market dependence should be avoided or substituted by a sizeable trade/current account su...

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