Politics: De facto presidential candidate selection process advances, race tightens up

MEXICO - Report 10 Jul 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

Now that the opposition coalition and civil society groups worked out the basic rules for the process of choosing their future presidential nominee over recent weeks and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez jumped into the race, the Broad Opposition Front has begun to gain the sort of traction that eluded it for so many months, and voter sentiment seems to be moving in its direction. That shift was already emerging on the eve of those two developments as the latest quarterly poll in late June showed support for Morena decreased after a recent peak in its support in our previous survey. At the same time, the PAN, PRI and PRD all gained considerable ground. Phone polls in recent days show an accelerated increase in Xóchitl's popularity and in the preferences for her to be the opposition candidate.

Support for the Morena-led coalition remains strong as 50% said they would vote for that coalition. However, 47% now say they support the opposition coalition, 11 points greater than in 1Q23 and the highest percentage reading the opposition has received in the last three quarters. Much will depend on how the respective pre-campaigns play out in the coming months, but for the first time it looks like Morena no longer has a lock on the 2024 elections.

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