Economics: December and January economic activity figures indicate a slight upturn following the stagnation of 2025

MEXICO - Report 26 Jan 2026 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

The economic activity figures released at the end of December and so far in January indicate that the stagnation of the first three quarters of the year has begun to transition to a very slight upturn in the last two months. This aligns with our growth expectation for 2026 of 1.1% (vs. 0.3% estimated in 2025), driven primarily by private consumption but also observed in some productive sectors. However, investment remains at very low levels, and public finances continue to face upside risks in terms of public debt growth. Similarly, on the inflation front, the core component remains at relatively high levels and has shown no sustained downward trend for several months.

In this Economic Outlook we present a summary of the main indicators published in December and January, as well as some of the factors that will influence economic performance during 2026.

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