December EMAE confirms 2017 GDP growth below 3.0% - No GDP Warrant payment in 2018

ARGENTINA - In Brief 28 Feb 2018 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano
The INDEC published today the monthly GDP proxy (EMAE) for the month of December 2017, with an annual growth rate of 2.0%y/y. With this result the 12-month-moving growth projection climbed from 2.7% in November to 2.8% for 2017 as a whole. Therefore the preliminary GDP result falls short of the 3.0% hurdle needed for the GDP linked bonds to pay interests at the end of this year.The actual 4Q GDP data will be published on March 21st. But although mild discrepancies, between the monthly GDP proxy and the actual GDP data exist, they are not of the magnitude needed to push the 2017 growth rate above 3.0%.The seasonally adjusted index for December grew 0.4%m/m (4.9% if annualized), yet the strong base of comparison, made December’s annual growth rate fell below the 3.9%y/y reached last November or 5.0%y/y in October.

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