Deciphering Erdogan’s road map

TURKEY - In Brief 22 Jun 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

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Erdogan and his long-time companion Bahçeli came out of a very tough election marathon with smiles all around, but they didn’t make it clear what they planned to do during the next five years when they shall reign over Turkey uncontested. AKP's Manifesto for the 100th Anniversary of the Republic was not even used in election propaganda, and seems to be shelved. While Erdogan spent most of his time attacking the opposition at the Wednesday parliamentary caucus meeting, he did not set any goals other than local election victory and a constitutional amendment to protect the right to wear a headscarf. These don’t amount to an agenda. I think it is important to decipher the intentions of Erdogan in order to put the dynamics of politics in perspective in the coming period. In my opinion, Erdogan has four goals: To turbo-boost the economy with external financing and new domestic mega-projects,To resolve the Syrian problem “somehow”,Winning local elections,To ensure his succession, that is either become eligible for another term or to control his succession. Additionally, he might be thinking of ways to keep AKP in power with 35% of the vote it currently controls. Boosting the economy: More and more I think the appointments of Mehmet Simsek and Gaye Erkan are made not to fight inflation, but to increase economic growth by attracting foreign capital, which will allow Erdogan to reactivate and feed his clogged patronage networks. Perhaps Erdogan's foreign allies required a return to traditional policies in order to invest in Turkey, and that names adhering to this school of thought should be on duty in their execution. So where will the external financing come from? Convincing f...