Decline of Confidence in Industry Points to Further Deceleration of Growth

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Jul 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

The dip of 0.6% in industrial production in May is one more factor that indicates mediocre GDP growth in 2014. This result leaves a negative carry over of 1.2% to the second quarter, meaning the second-quarter figures will probably show further contraction of industrial output (which has been falling since the third quarter last year). Therefore, overall GDP growth for the second quarter will almost surely decelerate again, with a high probability of a negative variation.

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