Deepening relationship between Belarus and Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 09 Dec 2021 by Alex Teddy
On November 30 Minsk announced that it recognizes Crimea as Russian. Belarus had vacillated on this issue for years. Minsk was even a venue for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Belarus appeared to try to be equidistant between the West and Russia. This was never convincing since Belarus is a formal military ally of Moscow. Minsk had tried to maintain decent relations with Ukraine, and for a while that worked. Neither Ukraine or Belarus needed another enemy. Since 2020 Belarus's relations with the West have deteriorated sharply. Ukraine refused to let Belarusian planes fly over its airspace in May 2021 because the EU introduced a similar ban. President Lukashenko is totally dependent on Russian largesse for survival. He is trying to extract the maximum financial support and give the minimum independence in return. He tried to involve Russia in disputes with the West. He wants to convince Putin that Western pressure on Belarus is also a plot against Russia.Belarus is negotiating with Russia's Eurasian Development Bank for a USD 3 billion loan. Putin said that he wants to see Lukashenko to speak to the opposition. This anodyne statement seems ominous for Lukashenko. He has striven to present the opposition as dangerous extremists and tools of NATO. Putin's statement is a shot across Lukashenko's bow. Russia is sick and tired of foot dragging. In 1999 Belarus and Russia signed a treaty aiming at full reunification. Putin is signaling that this cannot be delayed indefinitely. Additional rounds of EU sanctions on Belarus were passed in November 2021.It is rumored that Ukraine will downgrade its diplomatic relations with Belarus because Minsk said Crimea is Russian. L...

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