Default or Not Default

ARGENTINA - Forecast 06 Jul 2014 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano and Domingo Cavallo
Executive Summary This report presents two scenarios: a first scenario in which an agreement with the holdouts is reached avoiding a new default; and a worst-case scenario without agreement and default. Needless to say, in the default scenario we expect macroeconomic instability to increase significantly. A resolution of the holdouts problem will reopen access to financial markets for the provinces, YPF and the Treasury. In such scenario, the government will try to navigate the political transition amid a recovery, fueled by very expansionary fiscal policies, a more appreciated real exchang...

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