Deflation Continues

CHINA - Forecast 06 May 2015 by FAN Gang
Executive Summary Crimped by economic slowdown and weak demand, GDP growth slid to a new low in Q1, edging up just 0.3 pp from Q4 2014, to 7% y/y. Value added for major industrial firms fell 1.2 pp, to grow only 6.4% y/y. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6% y/y in March. Retail sales of social consumption goods turned in their weakest growth performance since 2002, their increase falling 1.1 pps, to climb just 10.6% y/y in nominal terms in Q1. Exports in dollars grew 4.7% y/y, falling for two consecutive quarters. Yuan appreciation explains the poor export perform...

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