Déjà-vu

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Sep 2024 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The federal government has submitted the Annual Budget Bill (PLOA) for 2025 to Congress, forecasting a primary deficit of R$ 40.4 billion (0.3% of GDP), which, once R$ 44.1 billion in court-ordered debt payments for next year are subtracted, would translate into a small surplus of R$ 3.7 billion, in practical terms, budgetary balance.

Just like the figures presented last year (for 2024), as well as the revisions made up until July this year, we believe that both revenues have been overestimated and expenses, notably those related to social security benefits and the Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC), have been underestimated.

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