Desperate For A Coalition

TURKEY - Forecast 31 Jul 2015 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary With coalition talks proceeding very slowly, the ISIS/PKK threats on the rise and emerging markets under pressure, macro visibility has never been this poor. Our political baseline is reelections now (60% probability), even though the political landscape is unlikely to change much in its aftermath.Such an eventuality, if it were to materialize, should intensify pressures on the lira, likely culminating in a rate hike. In such a scenario, rating downgrades from at least one of the agencies that currently ranks Turkey investment grade cannot be ruled out, either. Despite thi...

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