​Destructive ambiguity takes its toll on the currency

TURKEY - In Brief 07 Oct 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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After a brief lull, driven by hopes of Ankara finally stepping towards economic orthodoxy and calm-headed negotiations in foreign policy disputes, dollar/TL pair shot up to 7.84 early Wednesday morning. This is understandable, as Military Chiefs of Staff announced test firing of Russian-made S-400s in Black Sea town Sinop, while the President of Northern Cyprus Turkish Republic, Mr. Nahit Tatar proudly announced that the ghost town of Varosha will be opened to Turkish Cypriote settlement, a move which dynamites any hope of renewed reunification talks.I call these moves “destructive ambiguity”, the exact opposite of constructive one, which is supposed to allow originating states wider maneuvering move at home and abroad in execution of a concealed strategy. While the consequences of these acts are fairly predictable, the reasons behind them pose a great mystery, which I intend to explore further in the coming days. The consequences of test firing s-400s are obvious: Post-elections, US Congress will revisit CAATSA sanctions, urging Trump or Biden to abide by its will.NATO, too, remains deeply concerned, and may reactivate plans for the defense of its Eastern plank without Turkey. Yet, WHY Ankara decided to test the long-forgotten S-400s NOW is a puzzle. There are various theories, which add meaning to my newly minted concept of “destructive ambiguity”. The most likely theory is that Ankara is angered at US for deepening its engagement with Greek Cypriote Administration (GCA) and Athens, which is perceived as plans to abandon Incirlik in favor a new string of bases in Greek Cyprus and Greece. Another theory is that the Chiefs of Staff are concerned about staff reports tha...