Details of Minera Panama´s new contract remain secret. Implementation of the new base year improves the fiscal ratios slightly. The political scenario heats up fifteen months before the general elections.
February is coming to an end, and there is no official indication that the conclusion of the new agreement between Minera Panama and the Executive will be reached in the coming weeks. The company indicated that it would phase down its mining and export operations and suggested that direct employment at the mining site would be reduced. The terms of the negotiation between the Executive and Minera Panama are unavailable. The income tax and royalty discussions are moving at a good pace but other issues are still on the negotiating table.
INEC updated the base year in the national accounts. This update usually occurs every 10 to 15 years to reflect changes in the importance of various productive sectors in the economy. With the recent change of the base year from 2007 to 2018, nominal GDP for 2021 rose to USD 67,406.7 million from USD 63,605.1 million under the previous methodology. The NFPS public debt and fiscal deficit indicators improved as they were adjusted downwards: the new debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 57.9% in 2022 (instead of 62.1%) and the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio for 2022 will be 3.6% (lower than the previous 3.9%). The government is complying with the deficit ceiling established in the Law (although that’s not the case with the debt-to-GDP limit, which is 40%), and the update of the base year changes the fiscal indicators favorably.
The ruling PRD opened nominations for the presidential primaries on Monday, February 27, and these may continue until March 8. The three candidates so far are the current Vice President of the Republic, Jose Gabriel Carrizo (who presented his candidacy on February 27); the president of the Legislative Assembly Crispiano Adames (who will do so on March 4), and Pedro Miguel Gonzalez (who announced on February 26 that he will run, although without a definite formal registration date). Carrizo and Adames are right-wing populists, and Gonzalez would be the representative of the left-wing faction of the party. The apparent favorite is Carrizo, who has the support of President Cortizo, as well as the most important deputies in the Assembly. Adames has the support of local leaders and some deputies, while Gonzalez appeals to some of the traditional base of the PRD. The primaries must be held no later than June 11.
Coinciding with Martinelli´s official registration as the RM presidential candidate on February 27, the US Ambassador Mari Carmen Aponte declared in an interview on Monday that the US is worried about his intentions, tagging him as corrupt. Her statements pointed directly to the former president and indirectly to those who may coalesce with him next year.
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