​Diplomatic dividends and costs

TURKEY - In Brief 20 Mar 2022 by Atilla Yesilada

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The Politics Author missed contributing to the Weekly on account of a long-delayed family reunion. He shall pay penance with a couple of market briefs during the week. There are topics on which I refrain from commenting because they have little practical value for domestic political dynamics or the perceived needs of our GSP audience. The shuttle diplomacy to and fro Turkey over the last two weeks is one of these topics, for reasons I shall explain below.Alas, sometimes the popularity of the topic corners me to squeeze a market brief out. Let’s start with Turkey’s ceaseless efforts to insert herself as an interlocutor for peace talks in Russia-Ukraine War. Contrary to my views, these seem to have generated a small pay-off, as according to BBC News (linked here) in a phone call, Putin appointed Erdogan as his honorary envoy to explain to Zelensky his demands for making peace. Diplomatically, becoming the single intermediator to whom both warring parties can talk candidly is an important achievement. The new post might allow Erdogan more maneuvering room in his quest to aid Ukraine and gain favor with the West without Russian reprisals. Yet, net-net, the reflection to domestic politics is going to be relatively minor. The state visits by Israeli President Herzog and Greek PM Mitsotakis go beyond symbolism, in the sense that testosterone-filled jingoism in East Med could evolve into calm and behind-the scenes talks about solving the numerous interlocked disputes. On the other hand, it is too early to dream about a NG pipeline to pump gas from Israeli fields to Turkey to be sold in Europe.Cyprus looms as an impenetrable disruptor, even if Israel were to prove willing. Anot...