Diplomatic impasse with unpredictable consequences
As we write this report, the world press is reporting on the trespass of the Mexican Embassy ordered by President Noboa last Friday night to capture former Vice Jorge President Glas, a convicted felon who should not have been a subject of the political asylum granted him by the Mexican government.
Glas has been a “guest” of the Mexican Embassy in Quito for the last two months to escape a new order of incarceration by a court of law after another conviction requested by the General Attorney in a new corruption case. In addition to this questionable Mexican decision, President Lopez Obrador, during a press conference in Mexico last Thursday, openly declared that Luisa Gonzalez, the presidential candidate of the Correistas, lost the last election only because candidate Fernando Villavicencio had been assassinated with the purpose of torpedoing her chance to be president.
International courts will have to decide whether the trespass of the Mexican Embassy was supported by the international rights articles invoked by President Noboa. But in the meanwhile, Mexico has broken off diplomatic relations with Ecuador.
From an economic point of view, Mexico is marginally important to Ecuador. In 2023, Ecuador exported $203.5 million to Mexico or 0.92% of total non-oil exports and imported $738.7 million from Mexico or 3.3% of total non-oil imports. Also, it was Mexico that impeded Ecuador from joining the Alliance of the Pacific. However, there will be domestic political repercussions because the Correistas are beside themselves, and the alliance in the Assembly could very well suffer. In fact, legislators from Revolucion Ciudadana, are already requesting the resignation of President Noboa.
Social media is bursting both with applause for Noboa as well as revulsion for the action against the Mexican Embassy–mostly from the Correistas. However, Noboa will face the truth regarding public support on April 21, when the public consultation and referendum will take place.
The most recent poll conducted by CEDATOS showed that only approximately 51% of the people would vote "yes". That means it is too close to call, and it remains to be seen whether the capture of former Vice President Glas raises or reduces Noboa’s chances of winning the referendum, which would be the first step to his possible re-election in 2025.
Also, a mission from the IMF is currently working in Ecuador, carrying out meetings aimed at designing the new agreement that was intended to be finished by the end of May. We hope the above-mentioned developments do not affect the schedule for this necessary agreement.
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