Disappointing Growth: The Role of Credit

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Jun 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

The weak GDP growth in the first quarter threw cold water on any remaining optimism about growth in 2014. On the supply side, there are no signs that industry can reverse the current situation, and on the aggregate demand side, neither investments nor household consumption nourish hopes of better economic performance. In the case of household consumption, there are no signs from the labor market of stronger growth of real income, while the higher real interest rate combined with weak credit growth do not provide any perspective for economic stimulus. In this Bulletin we again examine what has been happening with credit and industrial output.

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