Economics: Divining future economic policy
Only two of the major campaigns (Morena and the Front) have registered their 2018 platforms so far. However, when it comes to economic proposals both show a mix of orthodoxy and programs clearly designed to appeal to voters troubled by weakened household economies and an international context marked by Nafta’s uncertain future, but neither offers an explanation of how it would fund these programs. We can expect something similar once the incumbent PRI gets around to presenting its platform.
Though such platforms are by no means binding on their respective presidential candidates once in office or even on the campaign trail, a reading of the platform through the lens of each political party and candidate’s historical trajectory can at least give us insight into how they are likely to be perceived by voters and by both local and domestic business interests, and how they may influence financial markets, not only as to the platforms but more importantly as to any signs over the course of the campaign that a candidate is departing from the platform script.
As always, there is a risk that campaigns will devolve into a bidding war of irresponsible measures, which is troubling given the difficult situation of Mexico’s public finances at present and the uncertainty over whether macro-financial stability can be maintained. Both camps are clearly striving toward the middle, with Morena’s newfound and decidedly generic appeal to economic orthodoxy, and the Front's efforts to find a happy medium between the dominant PAN’s more right-of-center center orthodoxies and the costly social policies that could appeal to a broader electorate and the specific social bases of its left-of-center PRD and MC allies.
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