Domestic Politics Are Back
As the September 2014 local elections for numerous Russian federal entities draw nearer, incumbent elites are utilizing all the instruments they have to prevent the competition from even registering for the election. The Presidential Administration would prefer that the governors win in a fair competition, but winning safely is more important than winning legitimately.
The greatest battle of September 2014 local elections will take place in Moscow, where 45 regional parliament seats will be distributed according to a first-past-the-post system. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin launched a large-scale campaign to prove he can be a highly successful campaign manager even without assistance from the Presidential Administration.
Rivalry is intensifying between Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who is responsible for the space and defense industries. Both are ambitious politicians and currently they are competing for control of several key agencies responsible for cooperation with contractors. However, the real issue is who will win the support of the President.
Russia’s leadership is rethinking its Ukraine policy as a dialogue begins to be established between Moscow and Kiev. However, a lack of trust or clear terms for a potential resolution are preventing the sides from making further progress.
After a decade of gradually intensifying Russian ethnic nationalism, a large majority of Russians have rapidly changed their priorities to support interethnic peace and stability. That may be connected to the conflict in Ukraine, which Russians see as demonstrating how dangerous internal tensions can be.
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