Don't be fooled by randomness

TURKEY - Report 03 Jun 2021 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 0.89% in May, lower than the consensus (and our) estimate of some 1.3%, which resulted in a drop in the 12-month rate drop --after 7 consecutive months of increase-- to 16.6% from 17.1% in April. On the other hand, producer prices (domestic-PPI inflation) rose by 3.9%, m/m, with the 12-month rate further increasing to a whopping 38.3% from 35.2% in April, with the gap between the two in percentage points reaching post-Pastor Brunson crisis peak (Graph 1; Table 1).

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