Don’t Stop Me Now!

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 Aug 2024 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

Public debt in Brazil started to increase again in 2023 and is expected to continue in the coming years. To reverse this trend, it would be necessary to generate primary surpluses close to 2% of GDP, which is highly unlikely given the government's low commitment to fiscal adjustment.

We also highlight the increase in the volume of voluntary deposits at the Central Bank, which reduces the need for repo operations, but is not accounted for in the general government gross debt statistics. If these deposits were included, it would be 1.7 percentage points above the current level and, therefore, 3.9 percentage points above the level recorded at the end of 2023, compared to 3.4 percentage points according to official statistics.

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